NFL Playoffs 2012; An Extremely Comprehensive Analysis of the AFC Championship Match Up

Who will win the AFC Championship game next week? Nobody knows for sure, but both clubs involved believe they are championship caliber teams. Read this position by position breakdown of both clubs and decide for yourself who will be going to Indianapolis as the AFC champs.

General Overview of the Ravens and the Patriots

The AFC Championship game will feature the Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots. It will be played at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, This will be a rematch of the 2009 Wild Card match up against these two clubs. However, this time both teams are very different.

The Baltimore Ravens enter this contest as the #2 seed in the AFC with a record of 13-4 after dispatching the Houston Texans last week on their home field by a score of 20-13. The game played between the Texans and the Ravens was the lowest scoring game of all of the Divisional Round games. The Ravens have remained undefeated at home. However, on the road, their record is a mediocre .500 at 4-4. They are clearly a different club on the road.Even though they won last week at home, many people watching felt that they seriously underperformed to their potential.

The Ravens come in having scored 41 touchdowns on the season. 21 have come through the air, 15 have come from the running game, and 5 have come from special teams. This number tails in comparison to New England by a lot. However, their defense has allowed them to outscore their opponents 378 to 266 with a differential of 122 points. They were much better than New England at limiting points. The Ravens third down conversion on the season came in at 97 of 229. They also produced 312 first downs. Their offense rang up more than 5,400 yards, which is something Tom Brady almost did individually by himself.

The New England Patriots enter this contest as the #1 seed in the AFC with a record of 14-3 after dispatching Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos by a score of 45-10. This game played between the Broncos and the Patriots saw both many franchise and NFL records either broken or tied. This game was over at halftime when Tom Brady threw his 5th touchdown of the half. New England is almost undefeated at home this season with a mark of 7-1 with their only loss coming to the New York Giants in a close game midway through the season. Last week's playoff game was utter domination from the start.

New England's offense was ranked #2 in the NFL behind the New Orleans Saints. The Patriots outscored their opponents 482 to 342 for a differential of plus 140. They bested the Ravens in this category. However they gave up 75 more points than the Ravens did. They produced an amazing 6,848 total yards on the season, almost 1,500 more than Baltimore. New England also made 399 first downs on the season, again besting Baltimore by more than 85. They produced a total of 61 touchdowns on the season, 20 more than the Ravens produced in 2011. They produced 39 through the air, 18 on the ground, and 4 from special teams and defense.

QUARTERBACKS

Joe Flacco

The Raven's starting quarterback, Joe Flacco, threw for less than 200 yards last week against Houston. Flacco connected just once on a touchdown to wide receiver Anquan Boldin.

On the season Flacco's stat line included a mediocre 3,6010 yards through the air. He threw for 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. This has been a common theme for Flacco throughout his career, as many people believe he has underachieved, especially with the supporting cast that he has around him in Ray Rice and Anquan Boldin along with Ricky Williams. His stats were better when he still had tight end Todd Heap who has since moved on to the Arizona Cardinals.

Tom Brady

New England's quarterback, Tom Brady, on the other hand set an NFL record last week with 5 first half touchdowns and 6 on the evening tying both Steve Young and Daryl Lamonica for the all time mark. Tom Brady connected with 4 different receivers to reach the mark including wide receiver Wes Welker, wide receiver Deion Branch, tight end Aaron Hernandez, and tight end Rob Gronkowski. Brady also threw for 356 yards on the evening.

On the season Brady threw for more than 5,200 yards becoming only the 5th player in NFL history to break the 5,000 mark. Brady also passed long standing leader Dan Marino's mark of 5,084 yards however, he ended up less than 250 yards shy of the record due to the New Orleans Saint's quarterback, Drew Brees, throwing for more than 5,400 yards in the same season. Brady also threw for 39 scores on the year falling just one shy of becoming only the second player to throw for 40 or more touchdowns twice in a career.

WIDE RECEIVERS

NEW ENGLAND

New England's wide receivers include Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Julian Edelman, Chad Ochocinco, and Mathew Slater. Of this group Welker and Branch are usually the only two on the field due to New England's two tight end sets they run constantly. However, last week saw Edelman on the field more. Ochocinco has been almost non existent in New England's offense this year with a limited stat line.

Wes Welker

Wes Welker is New England's top wide out. He had a record setting year for the franchise. His 1,500 plus yards was a franchise record besting Randy Moss's record breaking 2007 totals of 1,487. He also added 9 touchdowns and is an extremely reliable target for Tom Brady. He added 122 catches this season, tying him with only Jerry Rice and Chris Carter as the only players to have at least 3 120+ catch seasons in a career. He is considered by many to be possibly the best slot receiver of all-time. However, he often plays on the outside as well.

Deion Branch

Deion Branch was Brady's favorite and most reliable target for several years before bolting to Seattle in 2006. While in Seattle, he was highly unproductive, unlike his years in New England. He returned last season, midway though the year, when New England decided to trade often disgruntled Randy Moss to Minnesota. Since he has returned he has shown signs of aging, but has still been extremely productive at times with two games of 125 yards or more this season. Branch hauled in 702 yards and 5 scores in the 2011 campaign and scored last week in New England's blow out win against the Broncos.

Chad Ochocinco

After being signed to a 7 million dollar contract after being traded from Cincinnati, Chad Ochocinco has underperformed in the New England's offense. He has thus become an afterthought and only played one snap during last week's playoff game. He has been referred to as "Our best practice player." by Director or Player Personnel Nick Cesario and has seen limited time on the field the entire season. His most memorable play this season was a dropped sure touchdown in the Buffalo game that would have put New England ahead, but instead saw them drop that contest 31-34 in week 3. He has racked up only 274 yards receiving and 1 touchdown on the year.

Julian Edelman

After being signed to the roster in 2009 as a seventh round selection out of Kent State, Edelman has made the smooth transition from quarterback to wide receiver and punt returner. Additionally, due to injuries, he has seen time on defense this season, where he has done surprisingly well and reminded many people of a former player who also had a similar role, Troy Brown.

BALTIMORE

Baltimore's wide outs include Anquan Boldin, Lee Evans, Tandon Doss, Torrey Smith, and LaQuan Williams. Boldin and Smith were clearly the best of the bunch, but each only caught just over 800 yards each. Lee Evan, the former wide out from Buffalo was almost invisible in the Ravens offense this year. ,

Anquan Boldin

Boldin is clearly the best of the bunch when it comes to Ravens wide outs. However, Smith is not far behind. Boldin caught for 887 yards this season. However, he only scored 3 times. He is a big strong physical receiver, but his speed and quickness are lacking to say the least. He averaged 15.6 yards per catch, a much larger number than the New England wide outs.

Torrey Smith

Torrey Smith is the next mentionable receiver on the Raven's offense. Yet, he also only caught for 841 yards. However, his touchdown production is much greater than Boldin's. Smith comes into this contest with 7 touchdowns.

Lee Evans

After signing with Baltimore after spending his entire career in Buffalo, the Ravens expected Evans to be productive. Much like the situation in New England with Ochocinco. However, they got an even less productive receiver in Evans than New England did with #85. Evans has only produced less than 100 yards receiving the entire season.Much like Evans production, the remainder of Baltimore's receivers are not worth mentioning.

TIGHT ENDS

NEW ENGLAND

The Patriots boast the league's best tight end duo in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Both players are extremely dynamic and compliment each other well. The duo ended the season with 2,237 yards and 24 touchdowns and unheard of stat line for two tight ends on the same team. Gronkowski is both an excellent blocker and an unstoppable force in the passing game with his wide frame and wide catch radius. Hernandez is a good blocker too and is extremely quick down the seam allowing him to act as a third wide receiver in the passing offense. They both have excellent hands.

Rob Gronkowski

Gronkowski, the product out of Arizona, in his second season has become the most dominant tight end in NFL history in both yards and touchdowns. The monstrous 6'6" 265 lb. Gronkowski shattered 2 all time NFL records for tight ends this season. He broke the all time season touchdown record formerly held by Antonio Gates and Vernon Davis who were tied for the mark. Their record stood at 13. Gronkowski ended the season with 17 touchdowns. On top of that feat, Gronk ended the season breaking Kellen Winslow's longstanding receiving yardage mark for tight ends, when he finished the season with 1,327 yards besting Winslow's old mark of 1,290.Gronkowski also ended the season with 1 rushing touchdown on a play that was ruled a lateral. His 18 touchdowns broke a franchise record for a single player formerly held by Curtis Martin.

Aaron Hernandez

Hernandez, a former the former University of Florida stand out has continued to shine in the NFL. He ended the season with 910 yards and 7 touchdowns. Hernandez provides immense quickness as he is built more like a wide receiver with amazing speed and quickness to get down the field and excellent hands in the end zone. This was especially evident weeks 6 when the Patriots took on a NFC East opponent, the Dallas Cowboys. In the Dallas game, Hernandez caught a touchdown pass from Brady with only 22 seconds remaining to put the Patriots on top 20-16 in a game that New England had been behind in the entire fourth quarter. He ended up playing both running back and tight end last week and his speed showed. He ended the game as New England's top rusher.

BALTIMORE

Baltimore features Ed Dixon, Dennis Pitta, and Kris WIlson. However their production is more typical of most NFL teams. Both Dixon and Pitta combined for only a few more yards and touchdowns combined than Hernandez got by himself. Since Todd Heap has left to Arizona, the Ravens have been lacking offensive fire power at the position. However, in fairness we will review their stats.

Ed Dixon

Dixon was by far the most offensively productive tight end this season in the Raven's offense. He caught 54 balls for 528 yards and 5 scores. Dixon is not exactly the offensive juggernaut that Gronkowski or Hernadez are.

Dennis Pitta

Pitta had a similar stat line as Dixon. He produced 40 catches and 405 yards. He also hauled in 4 touchdowns. He and his teammates will need to step up their production this week if they expect to beat New England.

RUNNING BACKS

Baltimore

Baltimore features two productive running backs in Ray Rice and Ricky WIlliams. Both are effective runners in the NFL and Rice may be considered one of the best. They accounted for over 2,500 yards of offense both on the ground and through the air. Together they scored 17 touchdowns, a very productive number. They both compliment each other well and are both tough runners in their own right.

Ray Rice

Ray Rice has continued to shine in 2011. He has emerged as one of the top go to backs in the NFL and is the catalyst that drives Baltimore's offense. Rice accounted for over 2,000 yards of total offense. In addition he added 15 touchdowns to go with his monstrous yardage totals.

Rice produced 1,364 yards on the ground. He has also produced a whopping 12 touchdowns on the ground.The Patriots had trouble stopping him the last time these two teams met in the playoffs in 2009 during the wild card round when Rice ran wild and knocked the Patriots out of that game early.

Rice is also an extremely productive receiver out of the backfield. He was 3rd on the team in receiving with 704 yards and racked up another 3 touchdowns through the air. If the Patriots expect to stop Baltimore this Sunday, they will have to focus first and foremost on Rice.

Ricky Williams

When given the opportunity this season, Ricky Williams has shined. Although his numbers have tailed off significantly since he was in Miami, he has continued to produce over 4 yards per carry when given the rock. Williams has rushed for 444 yards and 5 scores this season, the perfect compliment to Rice. Although, he has been almost non existent in the passing game with only 84 yards and no touchdowns. This is not to say he is not still a dangerous weapon receiving out of the backfield though.

NEW ENGLAND

The Patriots running attack is truly an afterthought in Bill O'Brien's offense yet they have had a few games when they chose to pound the rock. New England has once again chosen to use the running back by committee approach. Although, this year they have added a few new parts. However, they have continued to average 4 yards per carry despite all the moving parts. The Patriots feature Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, Steven Ridley, and Kevin Faulk, not to mention a few other players they have thrown in there along the way like tight end Aaron Hernandez, fullback Lousaka Polite, and at times rookie Shane Vereen. Though, they mostly feature the first three.

Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis

Ben Jarvis was New England's first 1000 yard rusher in 2010 since Corey Dillon. However, in 2011 he has seen a serious drop off in numbers due to both injury and the emergence of rookie Stevan Ridley. However, one thing has remained the same; The Law Firm has yet to fumble in his NFL career. That is an amazing stat for a player in his fourth season.

Although, The Law Firm's yards per carry is down this year, he has continued to be an effective runner. Especially around the goal line. His best game this season came against the New York Jets when he rushed for 136 yards and 2 scores. He has remained the starter due to his reliability and leadership.

Stevan Ridley

Ridley has shown flashes in 2011 as a rookie third round pick out of LSU. However, he as also been inconsistent at times including his ball security as he showed last week when he fumbled against Denver. Ridley shined down the stretch averaging more than 5 yards per carry in his final three contests and many thought he would be given a bigger role come playoff time. However, he was only given limited touches in New England's divisional round match up.

Danny Woodhead

After coming off a 5.7 yard per carry 2010 campaign, Woodhead has also seen his stats drop in 2011. However, his slashing style has cemented his role as a go to change of pace back. He has still been extremely effective as a receiver out of the backfield as well and has become the clear successor to Kevin Faulk, when Faulk decides to hang up his cleats, most likely after season's end.

NEW ENGLAND

The Patriots once again boast one of the league's top offensive lines. They have had continued success despite the necessary patchwork due to multiple injuries along the line and especially in recent weeks. Despite that newcomer Brian Waters has provided stability through out difficult times. New England currently features staple Matt Light at left tackle, Logan Mankins at left gaurd, Dan Connolly at center, Brian Waters at right gaurd, and rookie Nate Solder at right tackle.

The center position has been hit particulary hard this season when Dan Koppen went down in week 1 with a season ending injury. Since that time the Patriots have mostly featured back up gaurd Dan Connolly. However, they have been forced to feature back up Ryan Wendell and even former Packers practice squad player Nick McDonald at times due to injury at the position. Despite the musical chairs approach, their offense has continued to roll showing once again why Dante Scharnechia is as good as it gets when it comes to coaching offensive linemen.

BALTIMORE

The Raven's feature three lineman that have been solid for the team in years past, #66 guard Ben Grubbs, #74 tackle Micheal Oher, and center Matt Birk.Birk has been one of the best centers in the league over the past 13 years and has a super bowl ring to show for it.

However, this season has seen new faces and a new scheme.The team also features Marshal Yanda who was a highly coveted free agent that the Raven's were able to keep, but at a steep price. They also have Tah Reid at right tackle, the spot formerly held by Micheal Oher who was moved to the left side.

NEW ENGLAND

New England features kicker Stephen Gostkowski and punter Zoltan Mesko in the kicking game. Gostkowski led the AFC in scoring in 2011 on 28 of 33 field goals. Mesko boasted a solid 46.5 yard average punting on 57 attempts. Both are excellent complimentary players and can help immensely on offense and in helping to win the field position battle against their opponents.

BALTIMORE

Baltimore has featured two kickers this season in Shane Graham, who was on New England's roster last season, and Billy Cundiff who has seen the majority of time as the top kicker for the Ravens. Cundiff has scored 122 points this season on 28 for 37 in field goal attempts and added another 38 on extra point attempts. Baltimore's punter, Sam Koch, has also recorded a solid 46.5 yards per punt on 73 tries.

NEW ENGLAND

New England's Defense comes in ranked 31st in the NFL during the regular season a stat that sounds so bad that many would wonder how they made the playoffs at all. Although last season many people complained about third down conversions against, definitely an important stat, this season has seen the focus shifted to yardage.

The Patriots have again been much maligned for a terrible defense. Many might argue that the stats that make them a supposedly terrible defense don't paint an accurate picture. There are those that would argue that 3rd down conversions against, points against, and turnovers are the most important to a team's success or failure. This season has seen the Patriots lead the league with a +17 differential in the turnover department. Additionally they have improved their 3rd down conversions against from last season. The Patriots rank in the middle of the pack as far as points against are concerned.

Defensive Standouts

This season defensive standouts for the Patriots include middle linebacker Jerod Mayo, defensive tackle Vince Wilfork, defensive end Mark Anderson, linebacker Rob Ninkovich, corner back Kyle Arrington, and defensive end Andre Carter.However, Carter who had accumulated 10 sacks on the season, like teammate Mark Anderson, went down late in the season with a season ending injury to his calf.Arrington has been a pleasant surprise in 2011 hauling in 7 interceptions for a tie for the league lead. While, Ninkovich has taken over the Mike Vrabel role with the exception of offense. #50 has seen career numbers as a mainstay on New England's defense in 2011.

BALTIMORE

Baltimore still has mainstay and future Hall of Famers Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. They also continue to feature other solid players from years past including Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata who have continued to help the Ravens be a force on defense in 2011.This has allowed the Ravens to only surrender 266 points on the season for an average a little more than 17 points per contest.

Defensive Standouts

Lardarius Webb has really shined in his third season. Webb hauled in a team high 5 interceptions and has solidified one of the corner spots. Webb has also been solid in the punt return department as well averaging 10 yards per return and 1 score.Jimmy Smith has had a solid rookie campaign at the other spot with 3 interceptions. Reed, Lewis, and Suggs have combined for another 6 interceptions and added solid play. Suggs also added 14 sacks with Ngata adding another 5.

As of Thursday January 19th these are some key players that have been placed on the injury report with either limited or full participation.

NEW ENGLAND

Limited Participation: TE Aaron Hernadez Concussion, G Logan Mankins Knee, LB Rob Ninkovich Hip, OT Nate Solder Concussion, & WR Wes Welker Knee

Full Participation: CB Kyle Arrington Foot & QB Tom Brady Left Shoulder

BALTIMORE

Limited Participation: S Ed Reed Ankle

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